Comparative analysis of machine learning and statistical models for cotton yield prediction in major growing districts of Karnataka, India

Table 12 Kharif cotton yield forecast in 2023 at the F2 stage using different machine learning model

District	Average yield /(kg·hm^–2)	ARIMAX				LASSO				RF				ANN
District	Average yield /(kg·hm^–2)	R ²	SE	F	Predicted yield /(kg·hm^–2)	R ²	SE	F	Predicted yield /(kg·hm^–2)	R ²	SE	F	Predicted yield /(kg·hm⁻²)	R²	SE	F	Predicted yield /(kg·hm^–2)
Ballari	270	0.59	95.89	1.08	335	0.49	149.37	0.01	295	0.41	127.78	0.17	271	0.83	69.33	3.43	819
Belagavi	301	0.61	61.95	1.62	382	0.02	97.89	0.01	321	0.88	61.49	0.50	443	0.85	56.52	0.87	321
Chitradurga	265	0.48	58.17	0.62	305	0.1	77.79	0.00	238	0.41	64.22	0.16	288	0.63	55.54	1.70	248
Dharwad	222	0.48	67.98	0.69	292	0.76	78.24	0.01	271	0.39	60.84	0.54	275	0.74	42.16	1.73	203
Haveri	306	0.95	119.69	1.19	404	0.46	123.01	0.04	368	0.99	90.22	0.21	433	0.95	80.07	0.27	281
Kalaburagi	373	0.6	113.93	0.90	883	0.12	171.68	0.00	839	0.19	153.53	0.25	797	0.60	126.01	1.08	476
Koppal	385	0.36	118.72	0.41	350	0.64	147.47	0.04	356	0.21	133.73	0.13	144	0.02	154.53	0.23	341
Mysuru	257	0.79	34.29	1.01	201	0.10	63.35	0.06	144	0.84	29.39	1.89	230	0.54	58.36	1.52	193
Raichur	257	0.75	206.97	0.79	481	0.65	159.9	0.00	478	0.54	111.95	0.61	500	0.96	34.37	25.64	586
Vijayapura	254	0.62	88.74	0.35	602	0.24	120.7	0.00	765	0.29	106.79	0.11	450	0.67	77.9	0.65	480
Average	289				424				408				383				395

The average yield was the average of the production data of each district from 1991 to 2021

ISSN: 2523-3254