Comparative analysis of machine learning and statistical models for cotton yield prediction in major growing districts of Karnataka, India

Table 11 Kharif cotton yield forecast in 2023 at the F1 stage using different machine learning mode

District	Average yield /(kg·hm^–2)	ARIMAX				LASSO				RF				ANN
District	Average yield /(kg·hm^–2)	R²	SE	F	Predicted yield /(kg·hm^–2)	R²	SE	F	Predicted yield /(kg·hm^–2)	R²	SE	F	Predicted yield /(kg·hm^–2)	R²	SE	F	Predicted yield /(kg·hm^–2)
Ballari	270	0.26	220.64	0.68	211	0.76	149.37	0.01	281	0.30	128.53	0.23	278	0.81	69.46	3.32	481
Belagavi	301	0.72	53.77	1.88	519	0.07	97.89	0.01	510	0.81	54.29	1.24	512	0.85	60.81	0.65	400
Chitradurga	265	0.47	61.03	0.58	223	0.34	77.79	0.00	196	0.50	59.97	0.26	170	0.64	48.91	2.20	145
Dharwad	222	0.35	90.38	0.72	311	0.15	78.24	0.01	294	0.44	58.15	0.80	261	0.63	48.16	1.14	270
Haveri	306	0.89	133.92	1.06	516	0.61	123.01	0.04	420	0.45	102.14	0.26	500	0.84	72.52	0.63	339
Kalaburagi	373	0.54	127.24	0.43	916	0.08	171.68	0.00	860	0.25	156.25	0.33	792	0.60	134.91	1.17	461
Koppal	385	0.11	137.27	0.24	376	0.44	145.52	0.01	368	0.64	119.74	0.18	371	0.05	183.44	0.26	391
Mysuru	257	0.39	46.85	0.36	259	0.40	60.22	0.09	271	0.48	43.26	1.19	274	0.37	77.88	1.43	415
Raichur	257	0.74	207.38	0.79	476	0.80	159.9	0.00	470	0.50	117.09	0.38	526	0.96	31.88	21.13	414
Vijayapura	254	0.36	116.99	0.31	206	0.73	120.78	0.00	469	0.22	106.81	0.16	400	0.63	79.86	0.64	486
Average	289				401				414				408				380

The average yield was the average of the production data of each district from 1991 to 2021

ISSN: 2523-3254